The Time That Comes

The day that we knew would inevitably come is now almost here. David Letterman has declared that he will soon be retiring. He hasn't said exactly when, which lessens the impact of the moment, but he seems sure enough that it will by next year. I will admit that I haven't watched "The Late Show" in years and years. I used to watch religiously, but I don't anymore. You might as well know that since I'm making like I've been heavily invested all along.

I always loved Letterman, and never was very fond of Leno. Leno's style was safe and his comedy was  more like research than writing. Letterman's style was caustic and outsidery. His comedy was smart and often absurd. I related to him as a person. I have always thought that if everything goes my way and I do as well as I possibly could, my ceiling would be like his. It has always upset me that he was so long second in the ratings on account of Leno's big hooker interview with an actor no one cares about anymore.

In any case, there now is the decision to be made about who will go on the air at 11:30 when Letterman no longer does. There is a lot of commotion online about how it ought not be another white man. People love to overlook the returned Arsenio Hall, but it's a fair point that there only one late night talk show host of color (that I know of) and with the end of "Chelsea Lately", none that are women (barring the inclusion of shows that stretch the definition of "late night talk show".

There are, with this up-swell of discontent, a lot of wishes for who the host should be specifically. It seems to me that there are two categories of candidate that people are pushing for. One is people like Howard Stern or Louie CK (who are, curiously enough, white men). These are people who are just too big already. What would CK gain from imprisoning himself behind a desk five nights a week? He's doing amazing things now. It's like when people say something stupid like how Christian Bale should play James Bond.

The second category is people who aren't big enough. The way it's worked for decades now is that after you've basically conquered live comedy and made serious inroads to television (via standup sets on late night talk shows and the like), you might get a shot at a 12:30 talk show. If you kill it there and the stars align, you might get a shot at 11:30 if you're well-suited to an audience somewhat more sedate than college students and other fringe elements.

That's not exactly a hard and fast formula, and the landscape has changed a lot since then anyway, so it's possible to get to 11:30 another way, but things haven't changed so much that they'll insert an unknown (which is what your precious alt comics and twitter favorites are, though God knows I love them too) at 11:30. They wouldn't give these people a 12:30 show, and I'm not sure they'd let all of them appear as a guest at 12:30. You might as well wish for a unicorn or a million, billion dollars when you blow out your birthday cake candles.

I'll reiterate that it's deplorable to have such a homogeneous slate of late night hosts, but the practical consideration of succeeding at the job suggests to me that change must climb the ladder, or else be stalled by the failure of someone not set up to succeed. Hosting a talk show is not easy. A comic like Louie CK spends a year putting together a pristine hour. A late night talk show host has to fill five hours a week, week after week, and the scrutiny is intense. Few people are capable of it.

I've heard talk of Steven Colbert being considered. That seems possible. Colbert is a significant star, but he's been on a half hour cable show. I think a network talk show airing five nights a week instead of four would be a real step up in prestige and pay for him, and it wouldn't be an unreasonable escalation of difficulty. He seems possible. Craig Ferguson has also been talked of, maybe just because he would seem to some like the next man in line. I'm personally doubtful of his prospects for a broader appeal.

After that I'm clueless. A first tier late night host is rarer than a prime NFL quarterback. They don't come from nowhere. The only other person I can think of who could make a reasonable claim is probably unable to accept, and that would be Conan O'Brien. He didn't get a fair shake at NBC, and I wonder whether he's so happy in the wilderness at TBS. Maybe he's free to do what he likes, but so was Stern after he left terrestrial radio, and that was the end of him as a relevant radio broadcaster.

It's premature to say anything definitive at this early date anyway. Hell, Letterman could wake up someday soon and feel reinvigorated, implausible as that is, but if he doesn't we're still at least a year away from any transition. We'll know sooner, but maybe not much sooner. The track record in late night for clean, smooth handovers free of dramatic tension is poor. We're just going to have to settle in for something people don't have much tolerance for anymore, and that's waiting.